Downturn hits Dunedin’s poor10.30.08

Otago Daily Times, 30 Oct 2008

The economic slowdown is starting to hit home in Dunedin as the city’s least-resilient families increasingly turn to the city’s social agencies for help.

And the same agencies say they are busy planning how to deal with more behaviour like problem gambling and domestic violence, which they expect to increase as the recession deepens and job market tightens.

Presbyterian Support figures show this September twice as many people dropped into Dunedin offices seeking help as did in September last year.

That month, it also handed out 30% more food parcels compared with the same month last year and twice as many people sought budget advice.

Spokeswoman Lisa Wells said the figures were indicative of harder financial times and showed how families were struggling to meet the increased cost of basics, such as food, petrol and electricity….

» Read more…

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Opinion: Why I don’t support the stadium - Part 809.22.08

The Moving-finger Writes…

The moving finger writes, and having writ moves on, nor all your piety nor wit, shall lure it back to cancel half-a-line. [Ed: From poem by 12th century Persian poet and philosopher Omar Khayam]

Old ‘Omar’ knew a thing-or-two. From time immemorial, even when earth was still a slowly cooling mass of half molten iron-rich basalt and granite, time has inexorably marched-on.

Time’s revenge, on Carisbrook, was the catalyst for what is now seen as the ‘Stadium Debate’. But a worthwhile contribution to ‘debate’ demands that all participants should have access to information. Those who have been elected to oversee our interests, crucially, have the most right of all to be kept up-with-play, especially on an issue with the damage-causing potential of this project. Yet, it seems, obtaining information from the Carisbrook Stadium Trust, could be likened to pulling teeth; nothing short of a crow-bar seems to have much effect. Is there a reason for deadlines not being met, information not being available for Council meetings and yet another ‘presentation’ by the CST’s most visible proponent as a substitute for accessible, concrete facts on-the-table? Is this the case; if so, how has that been allowed to come about?

The answer might well lie on the ‘skyscrapercity’ web-site. I made the mistake of following the link from ‘Stop the Stadium’ to this site to try and gauge the state of public-opinion. A big mistake, as it happens; all I found was a series of pathetic juvenile attempts at one-upmanship. The one piece of sanity in the whole depressing spectacle lay in the attempts of the moderator, ‘Ugly Bob,’ to bring some sense of reasoned discussion to proceedings. I gave up on the ‘blog’, which is a pity, but if I want to sample the ravings of people, who are so patently ‘in-need-of-a-life’ (which I don’t), there are more effective ways of doing it.

However, we should all feel beholden to ‘Ugly Bob’ for putting onto the site, (page 42), a series of revised graphics which make it clear, that what most Dunedin people think they stand to get, if the Stadium goes-ahead, will be light-years from what they had in mind. The revised ‘building’ is a large ‘tent’, there’s no other word for it. There is, on the South side, a ‘stand’, it is true, but the other four sides of the rectangle appear to be occupied by nothing more than sloping terraces. Onto these, presumably, prefabricated rows of relocatable seating will be put on ‘Match Days’. At other times, they are to be stored in ‘containers’ under-the-stands. The roof, if it finally has one, encloses the entire complex, and comprises the only weather protection for three of the four spectator areas. From ground-level, the graphics show an imposing substantial ‘building’. Every trick of perspective has been brought to bear to emphasise the ‘size’ of the complex, but don’t go looking for detail, there isn’t any. Details of the ‘interiors’, fade-out quickly with increasing distance from the viewpoint. As an exercise to appeal to the easily-impressed, eg the emphasis of ‘size’ and ‘scale’, it succeeds. To inform?  Forget it; it’s back to the ‘smoke and mirrors’, again.

The thing which disturbs me, is that this is the only place I have been able to view these ‘graphics’, they are notably missing, in my experience, from all pro-Stadium publicity. To put this in perspective, it is useful to go back to the hype and ‘bull’ of the heady days of the initial announcement. You remember the time, it was 2006. The very first entry in the ‘blog’ paints a glowing picture of what we thought we had in store at that time. What a sad let-down the ‘reality’ is by comparison. The ‘Moving finger’ has done it no favours.

But, there’s even better to come. Fresh from ‘skyscrapercity’, I took the trouble to read, carefully, the ‘pdf’ which features on the Stop-the-Stadium’ web-site, to find out just what we stand to get for the projected vast expenditure. I clearly recall one of Malcolm Farry’s objections to money being spent at Carisbrook, being the ‘lack of provision for an Electronic Scoreboard’. That made me keen to see what had been allowed for in the new scheme-of-things; and yes, it rates a mention. We’ll, apparently, hire one, ‘as and when required’. What of the antiquated Carisbrook turnstiles, which I recall being another matter of contention earlier-on. Well, flag-away the modern system, integrated with the ticketing we were led to believe lay in store-for-us. It too has evaporated and in its place a glitzy set of new shiny, but ‘manual’ ones, lies in store. The Conference Centre, fitted out to International standards of convenience and amenities? Not-bloody-likely, it has now shrunk to being ‘an area in which conferences could be held’, presumably, with a tent-roof over-head. You have to concede them this; it’s got ‘novelty-value’.

But better is to come. The ‘building’ now features five hideous bow-shaped trusses, which are shown clearly in the view from ‘overhead’. There was, as I recall, no such aesthetic excrescence visible externally, on the original, (and still widely-used), graphics. We are informed, that the ETFE material which is, effectively, the exterior cladding, is able to be ‘patched’, and so areas which have succumbed to the effects of ‘Ultra-violet’ or wear-and-tear, will simply be cut-away and a ‘patch’ applied. (I had bike-tubes like that, when I was a kid). ‘They’ve really thought of everything’.

But, and it’s a big ‘But’; the poll which was taken to gauge citizen-support in the heady days when the ‘Stadium’ was going to ‘save-our-city’, was made on the basis of ambitious projections which issued from the C.S.T. in a never-ending stream, almost daily. There were rumblings, even then, that the poll’s ‘questions’ had a bit of the old ‘Have you stopped beating your Wife’ aura about them. Even with that advantage, it would be fair to say that there was, at best, a roughly fifty-fifty split in favour of the Stadium going-ahead. It is a near-certainty that any deviation from an equal split, fell within the margin-of-error which usually applies to such exercises. That does not, to me, indicate a clear ratepayer mandate for this project to go-ahead. I have spoken to numbers of people on this matter, and the level of support, as far as I can see, does not justify claims that there is the support for it to proceed further. The poll in question was made on the basis of the glowing picture painted, for our benefit, by agencies of the C.S.T. What would be the outcome of a poll which was to be based on the situation as it is now beginning to unfold?. Claims, by Stadium proponents, of the support of a ‘Silent Majority’, a mythical entity constantly alluded to, but harder to pin-down than a live Unicorn, don’t hold-water. It’s not hard to see where the resistance to a citizen-initiated referendum on the matter comes from.

So, the strategy has been to keep as much as possible ‘under-wraps’ and on the day of the opening, when all the civic dignitaries are having their day-in-the-limelight we, the gaping yokels, will be able to front-up and say what we will all really feel, (‘Is that it?’), secure in the knowledge that we will spend the next twenty years paying for it to the virtual exclusion of all-else, while our city stagnates in everything which currently makes it a worthwhile place to live.

It would be nice to be able to look to the City Council for leadership and some measure of fiscal responsibility. The prospect of that, seems more remote by-the-day, and so, is too depressing to even contemplate. There are two reasons why planning for Awatea Street has moved into top-gear. Firstly, it is seen as necessary to get the scheme as far down- the-track as possible, before the public has had time to come to its senses. The official reason, is urgency to have everything in-place by the time of the 2011 ‘World Cup’.

What do you know of ‘World Cups’? They are held under the auspices of the I.R.B. which will, at the conclusion of the exercise, say ‘Thank you! Kiss my arse!’ and hightail-it back to Europe with the lion’s share of the takings. The NZRFU could actually have participated in ‘dry-run’ for hosting this event two ‘Cups’ back, by participating in a joint-venture with the Australians. Sheer incompetence on the part of our administrators, meant that the burden fell upon Australia, which seized it with undisguised glee. There are considerable misgivings, on the part of the I.R.B., about the NZRFU’s ability to host the 2011 event already. Ex All-Black Stu Wilson has pointed that out, (to those prepared to listen), and added a prediction that, even in the event of the 2011 event being a glowing success, there will never be another ‘Cup’ available to New Zealand. We may ‘rate’ ourselves as a ‘Rugby’ nation, and possibly with considerable justification, but we are about as remote from the real engine-room of the Rugby World as it is possible to get. So, the whole thing is being propelled by the urgency to rush-into-existence a Stadium, for what will, almost certainly, be a one-off event. Sorry, but that doesn’t make a great deal of sense, to me. It’s the ‘Olympics’ all over again. Our chance to experience the downside of the euphoria which accompanies the initial awarding of the ‘Games’ by the International Olympic Committee. Just ask Athens.

We are told daily that, with a Stadium, Dunedin will be able to again, ‘hold-its-head-up’ amongst New Zealand’s major cities. Excuse me, for not being aware that our heads were ‘down’. What are we apologising for? Could it be the lack of traffic-constipation, or a daily murder or two, in cities like dysfunctional Auckland? Would we seriously contemplate Wellington, or Christchurch? If so, why are we here? It’s not the climate, at least, not in winter. This matter of ‘holding our heads high’ rather amuses me. On the one hand, without the Stadium, we are a ‘lost-people’: On the other, we have the spectacle of the CST’s chief publicist, going cap-in-hand to the NZRFU, (that same body whose ineptitude made such a ‘pig’s-arse’ of the opportunity to host an earlier ‘World Cup’), to stand in-line and beg for a few crumbs in the way of ‘pool’ matches, and all so Pro-Stadium interests can claim justification for putting the city’s finances at extreme risk to get the ‘way’ of a handful of them. Does it make any sense to you?

But, the ‘Moving-finger’ intervenes yet again, with a cruel twist.

It’s a long story which has its origins in ‘Ninjas’. No not the ‘Mutant Turtle’ variety, but the acronym for those with ‘No-incomes - No jobs - No assets’, to which the major American Financiers have advanced vast amounts of money. When a few of our own Finance Companies took on a bit of a ‘domino’ aspect, we should have heeded the warnings, but ‘Hey, she’ll be right, it can’t happen here!’ It must be apparent to even the slow-witted, that this time, ‘she’ll not be right!’ The Corporations which are currently being sucked into the financial maelstrom are not ‘tiddlers’, they are ‘major-players’, even by world standards. It’s not long ago that a favourable credit-rating by ‘Merrell-Lynch’ was something to be coveted. How the mighty have fallen, as that firm, and others like it, make their merry way down a gurgler which has the capacity to swallow-up business enterprises on an exponentially-rising ’curve’.

‘Of course, It cannot happen here’, ignores the old dictum that ‘When Wall Street sneezes, the World catches cold’. We, in New Zealand, are living in a fool’s paradise if we think we are, in any way, insulated from the effects of an approaching deep recession, if not actual ‘depression’, by physical isolation from the ‘powerhouse’ economies of the world. Try telling anyone who does not know what it was ever like to have to get through a day without cell-phone or ‘iPod’; that there’s ‘crunch’ on its way which will rattle the fillings in their teeth. Why? Because we are a nation, which has constantly yielded to the temptations of ‘easy- credit’ to an extent, that we are either the second-highest per-capita indebted people in the O.E.C.D. or, perhaps, the highest. But, the ‘writing is on the wall’ for easy-credit, and because the capacity of an unregulated World financial order to provide its much-vaunted ‘checks and balances’ is notably absent, an international ‘correction’ is underway. Will it be a re-run of ‘The Grapes of Wrath’? [Ed: A film based on the 1939 book by John Steinbeck.] Will we have a repetition of the ‘Wardell’s food-riots’ of Depression days? [Ed: See The Depression Riots, 1932.] Possibly not; but the brand-new S.U.V. in the garage and/or the several-thousand dollars borrowed to have the most ostentatious ‘fitted-kitchen’ in the street, might not seem to have been so blindingly ‘inspirational’, eighteen months from now.

I dimly remember the depression of the thirties, as most of its effects were being offset by improvements by the time I made my appearance. Which of the austerity measures were prompted by the ‘depression’ and which were a by-product of WW2 and rationing, I don’t really recall. It was no great hardship anyway, that my mother washed, ironed-out and hemmed salt-bags to make handkerchiefs, as virtually every other kid in my class was similarly equipped. I even recall pleading with my mother to buy me ‘Brucemill’ school socks as other parents did, as the ‘queenie’ hand-knitted ones singled me out for ‘attention’. What I do recall about ‘wartime’, ‘depression’, or what-have-you, is that when everyone else is in the same boat, it tends to become ‘bearable’. (How could it not be in a district where families numbering up to nine, or more, were common).

If this is what lies in store for us, how do we best cope? The first essential in this strategy would be to take a conservative view of our finances. It has been said, that the best person to make a rational business decison, is someone suffering from mild depression, (‘bi-polar disorder’ if you believe in ‘wellness’ instead of ‘health’). That person is least likely to be influenced by hype or euphemisms, and so make a decision which is completely logical and fact-based. We had a brush in our wider family (sorry, ‘whanau’), a few years ago when a well-known pyramid-selling organisation recruited some of my relatives into their ever-positive, ‘happy-clapping’ ranks. Using a mix of psychology (largely pitched so as to appeal to greed and an ambition for higher social status), plus a good dollop of tactics adapted from ‘Old-time Religion’, they succeeded, with surprising speed, in turning my in-laws into compliant zombies. My brother-in-law was a spectacular case-in-point. He, who lived in a rural Nelson-Bays community, was going to be, in his way of it, the first to preach the gospel of the parent-company, in Mainland China. He even had a Mandarin-speaking Missionary friend, primed-up to get the thing off the ground; (something which backfired against me one day, when I asked, casually, ‘…And what’s the ‘Missionary Position’ at the moment?)  But, joking aside, it was the first time I had ever seen an erstwhile, sane, sober, rather deliberate person, with eyes which positively sparkled with the light of madness.

No one is suggesting, of course, that our City Council is similarly afflicted, but there will be some justification, for taking this view, I feel, if this project is allowed to continue down the seemingly inexorable route it has taken so far. Without wishing to be a harbinger of doom, I would like to go on record, as having pointed-out that to go ahead with this project, in the face of signs from overseas which couldn’t possibly be spelled-out more clearly, is irrational sheer insanity; not perhaps brought on by the prospect of a personal ‘pyramid’ recruited from a population of 1.4 billion prospective ‘happy-clappers’, but simply defying good, old-fashioned common-sense. There has not been a less propitious time, in getting-on for eighty years, to be embarking upon a scheme of this magnitude, underpinned as it is by loan- money which it is conjectural we can afford even before the financial Tsunami hits; for the very good reason, that those effects, which are causing a few of us sleepless nights at present, are going to rocket right into our living-rooms and affect every aspect of our lives in eighteen months, or so. One ‘Depression’ in a lifetime is enough, and by the skin of my teeth I just avoided the worst negative effects of the last one. There were, of course, people worse-off, like an old friend who spent years wielding a pick, or shovel, on construction of the Homer Tunnel. Public Works Camps, in locations such as that, were not the ‘life’ that most would have chosen for themselves. It’s like the weather. ‘Climate’ is what you should have, but ‘Weather’ is what you get. Life seldom ‘deals’ equitably, or fairly.

So, to sum up, what would I like to see take place? From where I sit, there are three possible courses of action.

  1. We could act responsibly and flag-away the few pathetic morsels we stand to be allocated from the ‘World Cup’; put the project on an open-ended time-frame and raise a much higher proportion of the finance required before finally going ahead to build a Stadium of which we CAN be justly proud, instead of the cut-price laughing-stock we seem fated to get. That could cost more, but in-the-long-run, possibly less. The matter should be taken, forthwith, out of the hands of the Carisbrook Stadium Trust, which is so obviously riddled with the ‘You scratch my back…and I’ll scratch your’s’ mentality which has been the driving-force behind far too many goings-on in our city for far too long. Enough money has been wasted already. The fourteen, or so, millions of dollars spent so-far, should have gone, instead, on making our beaches somewhere you can go on a hot day to relax and enjoy; not a priceless city asset closed off every time you want to go there, due to ‘faecal-coliforms’, (a euphemism for something you would have your work cut-out pushing uphill with a rake). There might be some public ‘traction’ for this alternative.
  2. We could return to the drawing-board and embark upon planning to get another fifty years or so, out of Carisbrook. Of the people I have spoken to, this is almost everyone’s preferred option. Obviously the man-in-the-street has the clear-sightedness to see what the Council, for all its perceived wisdom, has been blinded to. The cost, put beside that of the Awatea St. alternative, is modest; but so what? The ORFU debt to the Council should be written-off. (What a pity it hadn’t been, before we threw-away a further $14mill trying to bail Rugby out of a situation entirely of its own making). It should be made abundantly clear to the ORFU that, ‘Rugby’ has no ‘sacred’ connotations. It has become a commercial business, of choice, which should no more qualify it for ratepayer hand-outs than any other business-enterprise which is headed for-the-wall. ‘You’ve been bailed-out on countless occasions in the mistaken premise that Dunedin’s ratepayers owe you something. You’ve had your chance. We wish you well, but next time you’re on your own. Learn to like-it, because that’s the way it’s going to be.’
  3. Or, we could go with my favourite option, in view of the run-down state of so many of our city services. ‘Forget the whole thing….’ Maybe, just maybe, the difficulty of raising the ‘necessary’ at non-usurious rates of interest in a climate of approaching world recession, might yet have the unintended consequence of ‘saving-us-from-ourselves’.

‘Here’s hoping’.

Ian Smith
September 2008

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Councillors briefed on stadium09.19.08

Otago Daily Times, 19 Sep 2008, p. 4.

By Chris Morris

A new model showing changes to the Awatea St stadium design will go on public display within days. The model, prepared with input from consultants involved in design work for the stadium, is expected to show updated details and design tweaks included in the planned facility….

Detailed explanations of design features included in the stadium also featured in a wide-ranging consultants’ briefing to councillors held in Dunedin yesterday, which the Otago Daily Times was not permitted to attend….

Mr Soper was joined at the briefing by 10 councillors and up to 14 consultant staff.

The discussion was a chance for councillors to hear detailed explanations of key design features, such as the stadium’s proposed multipurpose function and its ability to cater to a variety of events, from the experts, Mr Soper said….

Cr Dave Cull maintained “grave concerns” about the project’s guaranteed $188 million pricetag and its affordability, and said the next three to four months would be “critical”.

Nothing presented to councillors during yesterday’s three-hour briefing had alleviated those fears, he said, “but neither did I expect it to”.

“I’m still deeply concerned about that and the ongoing costs to the community,” he said.

» Read more…

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The scale of the per capita ratepayer commitment09.09.08

Response to Robin Charteris’ Time to polish off the knockers (ODT Opinion piece, 9 september 2008)

We all have to take in quite serious vein the thoughtful comment by Robin Charteris in this morning’s featured ODT article (with sympathetic illustrations I note too) BUT…..

The scale of the per capita ratepayer commitment - both for the initial capital cost AND the subsequent annual maintenance bills - must surely be quite unprecedented for a ’special issue’ community project of this nature amongst the principal metropolitan centres in New Zealand.

The Town Hall project was funded from the surplus achieved at the Great South Seas Exhibition from revenue gained in public transport and attendance fees - and not the ratepayers… The Railway Station building had no funding derived from the City itself, and its ratepayers. The scale of the Moana Pool did not present a challenge of this magnitude to city ratepayers and similar assets have been constructed throughout New Zealand in response to both widespread health and recreation needs of local citizens with guaranteed regular and almost universal family and school involvement.

The ‘per capita’ ratepayer involvement and commitment needs to be clearly set out so that everyone can better understand the enormity of this project. The rugby story has been grossly exaggerated when compared with the present unique heritage Carisbrook facility which could be upgraded with much more modest capital input. Funding contribution from the rugby fraternity is minimal and apparently quite unprofitable. The only beneficiaries would seem to be the television people with their advertising customers dictating more expensive evening armchair entertainment. The spread of benefits through the commercial community are minimal and largely confined to overnight accommodation enterprises.

The project will do little to offset the challenges now facing the employment intensive manufacturing sector in the Dunedin metropolitan zone except for short term construction work. The benefits derived by the University would appear to be minimal and its investment in building up physical education would proceed whether the stadium was planted there or not. It is instructive to note the opposition to the project by the Student Associations.

The strongest advocates are almost without exception would appear to be very well endowed with personal incomes and assets - including privileged bureaucrats at the top end of public authority management and the customers to subsequent stadium events will need also to have well lined pockets too…

The environmental impacts have been given scant if any real attention. The successful filling of seats for big events will be very dependent on long distant private motor transport - not exactly a sympathetic response to air pollution matters.

But the argument about City Knockers really hurts people like myself who have devoted more than 50 years in generous service to a wide variety of activity in and around Dunedin. At least Robin acknowledges that some of the argument coming ‘from the other side’ deserves careful consideration by the promoters. In the political knock about world it would seem unlikely that these same arguments will be given that consideration however.

For many people it is very intimidating to stand up in public knowing that they will be subject to personal abuse and risk employment prospects. This is why people like myself, now aged 75, are more free to express our thoughts in the public arena.

By Jolyon Manning, 9 September 2008

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Stop the Stadium President, Bev Butler, on Radio Sport09.03.08

Radio Sport, 31 August 2008

Interview by Murray Deaker with Stop the Stadium president, Bev Butler, covering issues such as “Will the stadium be built?”, “How much will it actually cost?” and “Will the stadium be stopped?”.

» Listen to Bev Butler on Radio Sports, 31-8-08 (7:15 min).

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New gym a big expense for students09.02.08

Otago Daly Times, 2 September 2008

Dunedin’s two student associations could be facing a long-term multimillion-dollar headache if a new Unipol student gymnasium facility is built.

The facility has outgrown its leased home in Anzac Ave and discussions are under way about building a new facility at Logan Park or, the most likely option, adjoining the proposed Awatea St covered stadium building.

Building a new gymnasium would future-proof the facility but would come at a cost.

OUSA president Simon Wilson said yesterday a figure of $12 million-$20 million had been suggested, but this was a “guess”….

University chief operating officer John Patrick said it was too early to give the construction timeline for its facilities, which will adjoin the western wall of the stadium.

» Read more…

 

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Stadium land purchases08.28.08

DCC Website, 28 August 2008

On 30 June 2008, the DCC approved the payment of deposits on the leases and land in Awatea and Parry Streets required for the proposed stadium, associated University buildings and the realignment of State Highway 88.

Settlement of five purchases occurred on 31 July 2008.  Further settlements will occur on 31 October 2008 and 31 October 2009.

The payments were for a mixture of freehold title, ground leases, tenancy terminations and relocation costs.

About two thirds of the land will be used directly for stadium purposes and about one third will be used for University purposes, open plaza space and the realignment of State Highway 88.  It is expected that there will also be some land available for resale or development in support of the purposes defined in the change proposed for the district plan.

» Read more here…

» Related item: Excess Land Purchased Around Stadium Site, Channel 9 news, 28 August 2008

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Real average cost per household is min $268 per year08.11.08

How this figure is arrived at 

 

Working

DCC ratable properties = 52,000

ORC ratable properties = 106,000

Most favourable table mortgage = sum doubles (at least) in 20 years

  1. Cost on average to Dunedin ratable properties where $91m borrowed: (2×91m) ./. 52,000] ./. 20 (years)

    182 million divided by 52,000 (ratable properties) = average liability of $3,500  

    $3,500 divided by 20 years = $175 per year 

  2. Cost on average to Dunedin ratable properties when Regional Council portion of $18.5m is included: {[2 (91m + 18.5m)] ./. 52,000 } ./. 20 (years) =

    219. 5m divided by 52,000 (ratable properties) = average liability of $4,221 

    Divided by 20 years = $211 per year. 

     

  3. Cost on average to Dunedin ratable properties if must carry additional $30m cost for failure of Private Subscriptions:{[2x(91m + 18.5 m + 30m] ./. 52,000} ./. 29 (years)

    139. 75m divided by 52,000 (ratable properties) = average liability of $5,375.

    Divided by 20 years = $268.75 per year.  

     

  4. If the average household banked the total DCC and ORC levies, being $211 per year, at current rates, and those deposits are compounded annually (giving a reduced figure), their savings plus interest earned would be $9,656 over 20 years.

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